Case study · Outbreak response · Monkeypox

An average structural proteome of the currently circulating monkeypox virus.

An early-outbreak response: 3,713 genome sequences sampled within a year of the 2022 multi-country MPX outbreak, distilled into a consensus structural proteome of 210 proteins, each modelled three ways and screened for mutations at the binding sites of tecovirimat and brincidofovir.

Innophore University of Graz Open access
Microbiology Spectrum (ASM) · 2023
From genome consensus to drug-target mutation map
Genome sequences sampled 3,713
Candidate ORFs identified 10,580
Filtered against nr database 1,079
Representative proteins modelled 210
Structure prediction methods 3 per protein
Drug-target focus tecovirimat · brincidofovir
01 · The gap

A new outbreak. No structural picture of what is circulating.

By April 2023, the 2022 MPX outbreak had spread to 110 countries, with 86,956 confirmed cases and 119 deaths. The molecular response needs a structural picture of what is actually in patients today, not what was sequenced in a reference genome decades ago. And it needs it fast enough to inform drug repurposing, vaccine choice and mutation monitoring.

The outbreak

Global, fast, novel

MPX moved from endemic regions of Africa to 110 countries within months. Each genome sequenced from a patient is slightly different. There is no time to wait for a single curated reference.

The structural picture

Reference, not consensus

The standard approach models a single reference genome. That misses the mutational reality of what is currently circulating, and gives a false sense of stability around drug-binding sites.

The drug question

Will tecovirimat keep working?

Tecovirimat targets phospholipase F13; brincidofovir targets DNA polymerase. If either active site mutates under selection pressure, drug efficacy drops. That has to be tracked in 3D, not just in sequence.

02 · The approach

Sequence consensus, folded three ways.

The study built a consensus genome from 3,713 high-quality MPX sequences sampled from patients within one year of the outbreak. Open reading frames were identified, filtered against the non-redundant protein database, reduced to 210 representative proteins, and each was modelled with three state-of-the-art structure-prediction methods. Mutational analysis was then mapped onto the structures, with drug-binding pockets as the priority readout.

Step 01

Consensus genome

3,713 high-quality MPX genome sequences sampled within a year of the outbreak combined into a consensus, with average conservation per position retained.

Step 02

ORF identification

10,580 candidate open reading frames extracted from the consensus and filtered against the non-redundant protein database, reducing to 1,079 putative ORFs and 210 representative proteins.

Step 03

3D modelling

Each of the 210 representative proteins modelled three times, using complementary state-of-the-art structure-prediction methods, to give a per-protein structural ensemble.

Step 04

Drug-site mutational analysis

Mutation events mapped onto the structures, with explicit focus on the binding pockets of tecovirimat (target F13 phospholipase) and brincidofovir (target DNA polymerase).

Figure 1 from the paper: length distribution (A) and average conservation (B) of putative ORFs in the consensus genome sequence of the monkeypox virus.
Figure 1. Length distribution (A) and average conservation (B) of putative ORFs in the consensus monkeypox genome. The conservation panel shows which regions of the genome remain stable across the 3,713 patient samples — and which regions are evolving.Source: Parigger et al., Microbiology Spectrum 11(5), e02274-23 (2023), Fig. 1.
03 · The numbers

What the study delivered.

A real, sized response to an active outbreak: a structural proteome built from patient data, not a single reference, and shared openly so the public-health community could build on it.

3,713
Patient genomes
high-quality MPX sequences from within a year of the outbreak
10,580
Candidate ORFs
identified from the consensus genome sequence
210
Representative proteins
modelled in 3D with three independent prediction methods
3 × per protein
Structural ensembles
independent predictions per representative protein, with full structural ensemble openly released
Figure 2 from the paper: genomic map of the putative structural consensus proteome. Across the consensus genome, each ORF is shown along with its predicted structural models and the conservation across patient samples.
Figure 2. Genomic map of the putative structural consensus proteome. ORFs along the consensus MPX genome are shown above; for each one, the predicted 3D structural models are mapped below, with average per-protein conservation across the 3,713 patient samples colour-coded. This is the high-resolution structural readout of what is actually circulating.Source: Parigger et al., Microbiology Spectrum 11(5), e02274-23 (2023), Fig. 2.
04 · Drug-target mutations

Tecovirimat and brincidofovir, still on target?

The two small-molecule antivirals available against MPX target two viral proteins: phospholipase F13 and the viral DNA polymerase. The consensus-proteome view lets us locate the observed mutations in 3D and check whether they cluster near the drug-binding sites — a direct, structural early-warning signal for resistance.

Antiviral target

Tecovirimat → phospholipase F13

F13 is the established tecovirimat target. The mutation map shows the residues where the circulating viruses differ from the reference, and whether they fall in or near the drug-binding pocket. A clean pocket is good news for continued tecovirimat use.

Antiviral target

Brincidofovir → DNA polymerase

Brincidofovir targets the viral DNA polymerase. The same 3D mutation map is generated for the polymerase, with mutation frequencies labelled. If active-site residues drift, that is a structural argument for revisiting the dosing or the drug choice.

Figure 3 from the paper: mutation events in drug targets phospholipase F13 (top, target of tecovirimat) and DNA polymerase (bottom, target of brincidofovir). Mutation positions are mapped onto the 3D structures, with frequency annotated.
Figure 3. Mutation events in drug targets. Phospholipase F13 (target of tecovirimat) and DNA polymerase (target of brincidofovir) are shown as 3D structures with the observed mutations highlighted, coloured by frequency across the 3,713 patient samples. This is the resistance-monitoring readout the consensus-proteome view enables.Source: Parigger et al., Microbiology Spectrum 11(5), e02274-23 (2023), Fig. 3.

Continuing dynamic mutation monitoring within the structural proteome presented here is essential to timely predict possible physiological changes in the evolving virus.

From the paper
05 · Under the hood

The same machinery that ran on SARS-CoV-2, retargeted in days.

The point of the consensus-proteome approach is speed: when a new outbreak appears, the pipeline that built the SARS-CoV-2 structural picture can be re-aimed at the next virus within days, not months.

Consensus genome. 3,713 high-quality patient-derived MPX sequences combined into a single consensus, with per-position conservation preserved as a quality signal.

ORF mining and filtering. 10,580 candidate ORFs reduced through non-redundant database filtering to 1,079, then to 210 representative proteins covering the reference structural proteome.

Triple-method 3D ensemble. Three state-of-the-art structure-prediction methods applied to each representative protein, producing per-protein structural ensembles instead of single brittle predictions.

Mutation overlay. The mutational landscape from the 3,713 genomes mapped back onto the 3D models, with frequencies labelled. Lets a public-health team see where mutations actually accumulate.

Drug-binding-site focus. Mutation overlay restricted to the binding sites of approved antivirals (tecovirimat F13; brincidofovir DNA polymerase) as a structural early-warning signal for emerging resistance.

Open data. Structural ensembles, ORF tables and mutation analyses released alongside the paper for direct reuse by other researchers and clinicians.

06 · Publication

The paper.

Peer-reviewed · Open access

AI-assisted structural consensus-proteome prediction of human monkeypox viruses isolated within a year after the 2022 multi-country outbreak

Parigger, Krassnigg, Grabuschnig, K. Gruber, Steinkellner & C. C. Gruber  ·  Microbiology Spectrum 11(5), e02274-23 (2023)  ·  American Society for Microbiology  ·  doi: 10.1128/spectrum.02274-23

Platform & first author

Innophore

Consensus genome assembly, ORF mining, triple-method 3D modelling pipeline, mutation overlay, drug-binding-site analysis. First and corresponding authorship.

Authors: Lena Parigger, Andreas Krassnigg, Stefan Grabuschnig, Georg Steinkellner, Christian C. Gruber.

Academic partner

University of Graz

Institute of Molecular Biosciences. Structural biology context and shared affiliations through the long-standing Innophore–Graz partnership.

Authors: Karl Gruber.

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